报告题目：Modelling the reopening strategy for COVID-19 epidemic

报告人：肖燕妮  西安交通大学

报告时间：2021-12-29  10:30-11:30

报告地点：腾讯会议ID：829 361 587

主持人：王振友

报告摘要：

Abstract: Massive movements significantly affect disease spread, then restricting population travel becomes an important strategy to prevent the spatial spread of infectious diseases. With the reduction of the epidemic situation, when and where travel restrictions can be lifted, and how to organize orderly movement patterns become critical.  In this talk, I shall present our recent work. We define a novel diffusion distance, based on which we provide a general model to describe the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases with a random diffusion process and a deterministic drift process of the population. We consequently develop a multi-source data fusion method to determine the population flow in epidemic areas. To verify our model and method, we analyze the multisource data and obtain a new travel flux triggering scheme in the selected 29 cities with the most active population movements in mainland China. The testable predictions in these selected cities show that reopening the borders in accordance with our proposed travel flux will not cause a second outbreak of COVID-19 in these cities. We provide a methodology of re-triggering travel flux during the weakening spread stage of the epidemic.

报告人简介：肖燕妮，教授，西安交通大学数学与统计学院副院长、数学与生命科学交叉研究中心主任、博士生导师。主要从事数据和问题驱动的传染病动力学的研究。 参与完成了国家“十一五”、“十二五”和“十三五”科技重大专项艾滋病领域的建模研究。受国家自然基金委天元基金的资助，2014年、2015年连续两年承办全国 “生物数学研究生暑期学校”。主持国家自然科学基金4项，其中重点项目1项。2008入选教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”，2017年至今任中国生物数学专业委员会副主任，2020年获陕西最美科技工作者，2020年起任国务院学位委员会第八届学科评议组成员（数学）。